The Map and The Territory

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision-making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how he can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territorysmartly updates our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioural economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thriiling lucid and empirical grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. Alan Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigour, wisdom and unprecedented experience, offers a masterclass in economic decision-making. '. . . a thoughtful, nuanced and open-minded perspective, tempered by many years of having seen both business and public policy from the inside . . .' N. Gregory Mankiw, The New York Times Book Review Praise for The Age of Turbulence 'First rate . . . The Age of Turbulenceis intelligent in a way that few popular books on economics manage or even try to be . . . an enjoyable read.' Economist 'Revealing and penetrating.' Sunday Times 'Unexpectedly charming, surprising frank . . . the charm of Greenspan's book is its self-portrait . . . the result is one of the more interesting characters in the history of our democracy. The New York Times 'Entertaining and insightful . . . Greenspan is an oracle smart enough to know what he doesn't know . . . such humility, coming from someone as powerful as Alan Greenspan, is disarmingly refreshing, as is this interesting and edifying book. Boston Globe 'Greenspan's voice is unique . . . the stories are wonderful.' Los Angeles Times